A Question of Overconfidence

Not too long ago, I had a group of my students sit for a trial exam. It was a standardised aptitude test on English and Maths.

They went in cold with zero preparation as it was only the second week of the school year, and the first trial exam serves to establish a base line.

A young man in my class piped up, “Miss, I think I got at least 80%.” His chest swelled out in the shape of a barrel.

I smirked inwardly.

The test has numerous multiple-choice questions, so even if you don’t know the answer to a question, you can still take a punt and have a 25% chance of getting it right.

It makes the test seem easier than it actually is.

He ended up with a score of 34%, and his ego crushed to a pile of kindling.

A lower than expected score on the first trial exam often motivates my students to study—which is always a good thing, especially if they want to pursue tertiary studies.

They soon become familiar with the format, learn exam techniques, expand their knowledge base and develop critical thinking skills.

This young man’s initial cockiness reminds me of some disastrous auditions that we’ve all witnessed on American or Australian Idol.

Maybe those auditioning were lavished with too much praise from tone deaf and delusional parents.

Yet, being overconfident while abysmally untalented can still make you popular these days. Overnight, you can become a social media sensation, but for all the wrong reasons.

At least you give the world some much needed comic relief.

Overconfidence

There’s a term for this overestimation of our abilities. It’s called the Dunning-Kruger effect. (Sounds more like a delicious pastry doesn’t it? French Crullers mmmh)

Psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University conducted a study in 1999. They tested participants on their logic, grammar and sense of humour. Those who performed the worst rated their own skills far above the average.

So why don’t people recognize their own incompetence?

It is because people cannot look at themselves objectively. Their inner critic is somewhat biased.

Those who are the least competent are most likely to overestimate their skills and worth. It seems we are poor evaluators of gaps in our own knowledge.

However, the effect isn’t only among incompetent individuals. Skilled people have been found to overestimate their abilities as well.

Sometimes we pretend to be smart or more skilled than what we really are because we don’t want to be viewed as inferior to others.

Please read Joshua 7:1-5

The conquest of Canaan took 7 years. Only one battle was lost during that period—the initial assault on the town of Ai.

The children of Israel had just defeated the inhabitants of the city of Jericho, which was a heavily fortified city.

Archaeologists suggest that Jericho’s walls were 30 feet high, with a 6-foot outer wall. It was a convincing and effective barrier against attack. However, for extra protection a 12-foot inner wall stood at a12-15 foot distance from the outer wall.

As the population of Jericho grew, houses were built on top of the walls at close distance to each other.

The children of Israel destroyed the entire city. It was their first conquest. The walls came toppling down at the sound of the horns of 40,000 men. A seismic tremor or an earthquake at that exact moment levelled Jericho’s walls.

It was an easy victory.

Were Joshua and the children of Israel overconfident?

Jericho was easily won. They’d march around it, shouted, blew their trumpets and bam! It collapsed.

It was a miracle by God in timing and in destructive power.

Ai’s population stood at 12,000.

It was a flourishing city farther up the hill from Jericho. Spies on their reconnaissance mission reported to Joshua that the town was much smaller than Jericho.

The children of Israel presumed that because of its size, it would require less time and strength for its capture.

Joshua listened to the spies and sent only 3,000 men to wage war against Ai.

The Israelite’s swagger quickly evaporated as they found themselves fleeing from the men of Ai who were dogging their heels in full pursuit.

They chased the Israelites from the city gate as far as the stone quarries. The slowest and weakest among them slain on the slopes.

They were utterly humiliated and the hearts of the people melted and became like water.

A different outcome

The defeat at Ai may have been avoided if Joshua had consulted the Lord before attacking the little town of Ai.

God would have revealed some hidden things to Joshua, which we’ll examine in the my next post.

The takeaway

Jericho had fallen. It had been besieged with 40,000 men.

Joshua and his men presumed that the little town of Ai would require less resources, time and strength for its capture.

Just because a significant city like Jericho was vanquished with ease, this did not guarantee easy victories down the road.

In our Christian lives, we are at our most vulnerable right after a victory. We can become overconfident in our abilities and complacent in our prayer lives.

We must seek God’s face continually and depend on Him for wisdom and strength. For it is only through Him that we have the victory.

Through God we shall do valiantly: for he it is that shall tread down our enemies.   Psalm 60:12

Bibliography

Author unspecified, ‘Dunning-Kruger effect’, Psychology Today, Retrieved 28 Feb 2021 from

https://www.psychologytoday.com/au/basics/dunning-kruger-effect

Henry, M. 1961, Commentary on the Whole Bible, Zondervan, Michigan.

Pawson, D. 2015, Unlocking The Bible, William Collins, UK.

Pfeiffer C,F. 1990, The Wycliffe Bible Commentary, Moody Publishers, Illinois.

Walton, J. 2000, The IVP Bible Background Commentary Old Testament, IVP Academic, Illinois.